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NFL on Thanksgiving: FrontPageBets takes a look at top bets for each of Thursday's three games

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A Thanksgiving banner is seen after an NFL football game between the New Orleans Saints and the Buffalo Bills, Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021, in New Orleans.

Thanksgiving is here and so is this week’s Pro Football Challenge special with three Turkey Day games, including our game of the week: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys.

Thursday’s three-game NFL feast should be a good one as Week 12 kicks off on Thanksgiving Day.

The Buffalo Bills will play their second game in five days at Detroit’s Ford Field, as they’ll face the Lions in the first game Thursday.

The Bills played the Cleveland Browns this past Sunday in Detroit after a massive snow storm forced the game to be moved from Buffalo. This week, the Lions will be the home team in their traditional Turkey Day time slot. Buffalo is currently a 9-point favorite.

The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys will have the matinee game at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys are currently 9.5-point favorites at home.

The New England Patriots visit the Minnesota Vikings in prime-time to cap the day. The Vikings are 3-point favorites.

Since 2004, Thanksgiving Day favorites are 43-8 straight up and 35-16 against the spread, according to the Action Network, while road favorites are 23-1 straight up and 19-5 ATS.

If either the Lions or Giants win, it’ll be the biggest Thanksgiving Day upset since 1993, when the Miami Dolphins were 10-point underdogs to the Cowboys and won in the epic snow game at Texas Stadium.

Detroit is 37-43-2 all-time on Thanksgiving, while Dallas is 31-22-1.

FrontPageBets takes a look at one best bet for each of Thursday’s games, while also picking the game against the spread.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change.)

Bills WR Gabe Davis anytime touchdown (+110)

As part of the Bills’ high-powered offense, wideout Gabe Davis has had plenty of targets this season. But he’s struggled to make the most of them recently.

Davis is second on the team in targets (55) but just fourth in catches (29). He does however have five touchdown catches on the season to go with 612 receiving yards -- both good enough for second on the team.

And his 21.1-yards-per-catch average, which is second in the entire NFL, makes him a big-play threat at any time.

Against a Lions defense that’s giving up about 12 yards per catch and 16 passing touchdowns, Bills quarterback Josh Allen will look to stretch the field with Davis.

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

  • When: 12:30 p.m., CBS
  • Spread: Bills -9.5 (-110); Lions +9.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Bills -410; Lions +330
  • Over/Under: 53.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Bills, 30-25

New York Giants +9.5 (-110)

Coming off a disappointing home loss to the Lions in Week 11, the Giants need a rebound game to keep pace in the NFC East.

At 7-3, New York is tied with the Cowboys for second in the division, behind the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles, but the Giants have already lost to Dallas earlier in the season, putting them behind in any tie-breaker.

Dallas rolled past Minnesota this past week, 40-3, showing off their high-octane offensive potential.

So this game is for more than bragging rights.

Against the spread this season, both the Giants and Cowboys are two of just five teams to have covered at least seven times -- both 7-3.

As a favorite, Dallas is 4-1 and 3-0 as a home favorite against the spread. As an underdog, New York is 5-1 against the spot, and as an away dog, they’re 2-1.

This is the biggest spread the Giants have faced so far this season. The next-closest was when they were 8.5-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers in Week 5. New York won that game 27-22.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

  • When: 4:30 p.m., FOX
  • Spread: Cowboys -9.5 (-110); Giants +9.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Cowboys -365; Giants +300
  • Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
  • The pick: Cowboys, 27-21

New England Patriots under 19.5 total team points (+100)

It’s no secret the Patriots offense has struggled to get into gear at times this season. In half of their games, the Pats haven’t scored more than 22 points. Twice, they’ve scored 10 or less, including Sunday’s 10-3 win over the New York Jets.

Six times this season, New England failed to hit the Over, while scoring and average of 21.3 points per game. The Vikings defense is giving up an average of 23.1 points per game.

It’s also no secret prime-time games, especially Thursday night games, haven’t seen tons of offense. In seven of the 11 Thursday Night Football games so far in 2022, the losing team has failed to score more than 17 points -- in three games 10 points or less were scored.

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings

  • When: 8:20 p.m., NBC
  • Spread: Vikings -3 (-110); Patriots +3 (-110)
  • Money line: Vikings -150; Patriots +130
  • Over/Under: 42 (-110)
  • The pick: Vikings, 28-17

Gambling problem? There is help. Call 1-800-522-4700 or visit the National Council on Problem Gambling for help.

Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 22-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.

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